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We show everything.The bad months too.

Every strategy against its benchmark, after costs, drawdowns included.

Where we stand

Data on this page
Backtest, Jan 2023 – Nov 2026
Live track record
To follow
Verification
Myfxbook · Darwinex · wikifolio

The performance panel.

Claude Momentum, our own algo, against SPY buy & hold – a backtest, day by day, since January 2023.

  • Every month is shown.

    The negative ones too. No flattering start dates.

  • Live and backtest never mix.

    Each gets its own curve and label.

  • Costs are always shown.

    What the test deducts, and what more costs would do.

Claude Momentum vs SPY buy & holdBacktest – hypothetical
  • Claude Momentum$104,528.69
  • SPY buy & hold$20,115.87
$0$20k$40k$60k$80k$100k$120k$140k2023202420252026

– · Start $10,000 · After 2 bp trading costs per side; borrowing costs at 6.75% a year deducted · Up to 2× exposure

Show as table
Claude Momentum vs SPY buy & hold, 3 Jan 2023 – 5 Nov 2026
Month endClaude MomentumSPY buy & hold
$10,064.77$10,538.37
$10,656.64$10,437.74
$10,911.81$10,629.81
$9,524.90$10,810.85
$9,790.61$10,989.78
$10,293.68$11,598.31
$11,466.30$12,020.81
$11,483.22$11,868.41
$10,676.97$11,340.29
$10,630.61$10,936.97
$10,758.91$11,967.47
$11,130.09$12,519.25
$11,703.31$12,839.28
$13,686.47$13,347.43
$14,266.46$13,747.60
$15,002.36$13,363.99
$16,530.05$13,758.90
$18,787.65$14,376.36
$18,621.85$14,424.97
$16,456.78$14,733.44
$18,664.01$14,988.57
$20,875.72$15,124.67
$29,712.41$15,753.96
$31,652.06$15,501.20
$30,222.01$15,961.01
$31,703.90$15,385.85
$30,977.95$14,448.09
$30,713.65$14,387.66
$30,790.53$15,473.34
$35,113.96$16,222.97
$40,055.87$16,804.17
$38,137.39$17,012.80
$49,238.54$17,418.74
$59,172.71$18,000.21
$57,501.11$17,891.96
$60,673.50$18,053.81
$81,759.06$18,179.93
$80,311.79$17,944.24
$75,533.53$16,786.83
$86,330.97$18,779.00
$98,701.48$19,862.32
$106,296.63$19,475.55
$105,075.54$19,567.78
$106,802.02$20,160.01
$116,031.66$20,141.62
$102,692.93$20,008.39
$104,528.69$20,115.87

Annual return

84.3%

SPY 20.0% · same period

Deepest drawdown

−24.2%

Feb 2023 – May 2023 · SPY −20.0%

Sharpe ratio

1.86

SPY 1.28 · smoother, not safer

Positive months

33 of 47

Worst: Apr 2023, −12.7%

Drawdown from peak
  • Claude MomentumMax −24.2%
  • SPY buy & holdMax −20.0%
0%−5%−10%−15%−20%−25%2023202420252026
Show as table
Drawdown from peak, 3 Jan 2023 – 5 Nov 2026
Month endClaude MomentumSPY buy & hold
−2.4%−0.6%
−6.4%−4.2%
−4.1%−2.5%
−16.3%−1.0%
−14.0%−0.9%
−9.6%−0.3%
0.0%−0.3%
−0.1%−1.6%
−7.1%−6.0%
−7.5%−9.3%
−6.4%−0.8%
−3.2%−0.1%
−2.8%−0.4%
−1.5%−0.2%
−8.6%0.0%
−3.8%−2.9%
0.0%−1.7%
−4.1%−0.4%
−4.9%−2.5%
−16.0%−0.4%
−4.7%−0.7%
−4.0%−1.8%
0.0%−0.2%
−5.1%−2.9%
−9.4%−0.4%
−5.0%−4.2%
−7.1%−10.1%
−7.9%−10.5%
−7.7%−3.7%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
−5.6%0.0%
0.0%−0.6%
0.0%−0.5%
−5.8%−1.1%
−2.8%−0.5%
0.0%−0.7%
−5.7%−2.0%
−11.3%−8.4%
−3.8%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
−2.1%−2.2%
−4.1%−1.8%
−5.2%−1.5%
−1.3%−1.5%
−14.6%−2.2%
−13.1%−1.7%
Year by year
YearStrategySPY
2023+11.3%+25.2%
2024+184.4%+23.8%
2025+91.7%+16.5%
2026to 5 Nov 2026+72.3%+11.4%
How it was tested
Market
Liquid US large-cap stocks
Signals
Proprietary momentum model, built with Claude
Sizing
Volatility-targeted, up to 2× exposure
Fills
Realistic: the spread is paid on entry
Financing
Margin interest at 6.75% a year deducted
Trading costs
2 bp per side on every buy and sell – see the cost table
What trading costs would doOur figures are after 2 bp per side on every buy and sell. Here is the same run from no costs to 5 bp.
Cost per sideAnnual return$10,000 becameDeepest drawdown
0 bp108.8%$168,635−20.8%
1 bp96.2%$132,772−22.5%
2 bpour figures84.3%$104,529−24.2%
5 bp52.9%$50,983−29.0%

Simulated results on past data, with settings chosen on this same period. They are not live trading, include leverage, and are not a reliable indicator of future results. You can lose more than the backtest's worst drawdown.

Checked by others.

Results should live where we can't edit them.

  • Myfxbook

    Verified history for MetaTrader 5 accounts.

    To follow
  • Darwinex

    Public strategy history from real accounts.

    To follow
  • wikifolio

    Public model portfolios for equity strategies.

    To follow

The terms, briefly.

Drawdown
The fall from a previous high to the next low.
Sharpe ratio
Excess return relative to its fluctuation. Smoother, not safer.
Walk-forward
Tune on one period, test on the next unseen one.
Overfitting
Rules that learned noise. Great backtest, weak live.
Slippage
The gap between expected and filled price. A real cost.

Check us. Then decide.

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